MLB Sunday Slate: Cease, the Mets, and a Big Board That Needs Prices

This is the useful version of the big board: not a raw dump, not a victory lap, and definitely not pretending estimated prices are gospel. Start with Cease, Scott, Perez, Burke, and the Mets angle, then make lineups and posted numbers do their jobs. Annoying, yes. Necessary, also yes.

Prices, availability, and weather still need a final check before lock. That is the boring sentence that keeps the rest of this honest.

BAL at TB (12:15 ET)

Trevor Rogers goes for BAL with a 7.7 K/9 against a TB lineup that strikes out the least in baseball (20.7%). That's a bad K matchup - Rogers' ceiling is capped. On the other side, Freddy Peralta has 7.8 K/9 against BAL's 28.9% K rate (highest on the slate), but he's been getting shelled (9.31 ERA). The K rate is real, the pitching is not. Simpson is the interesting bat here - .306 season, 77.8% multi-hit L15, 9.5% K rate. He's the best 2+ hit candidate on the slate if he's in the lineup.

Our model: BAL 3-2, WP 57%, total 9.5. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.49. Slight BAL edge but nothing strong - coin-flippy. The main risk: TB's 20.7% K rate kills Rogers' K prop. Peralta's ERA means he could get knocked out early and never reach his K ceiling. Both starting pitchers have real warts. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, weather, and batting orders need a fresh check.

Targets: Chandler Simpson 2+ hits (if in lineup), Peralta OVER 4.5 Ks (high K% opponent but ERA risk), pass on ML until lines post.

BOS at PIT (13:35 ET)

Low total (7.3) suggests a pitcher's duel, but neither arm is dominant. Sandoval (BOS) has 8.7 K/9 against PIT's 27.4% K rate - decent K floor. Lake Bachar (PIT) has 9.4 K/9 but his L5 average is 2.6 - the K output is terrible despite the rate. Don't touch Bachar's K over. The BOS bats are more interesting: Kiner-Falefa (50% multi-hit L15), Contreras (40%), and Yoshida (40% but QUESTIONABLE - hamstring). If Yoshida sits, the BOS SGP loses a leg.

Our model: PIT 3-2, WP 59%, total 7.3. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.48. Model slightly favors PIT but our ensemble actually has BOS at 53% - internal disagreement. The main risk: Yoshida's hamstring. PIT at home with 59% WP. Sandoval only 30 IP - small sample. Bachar's K output doesn't match his K/9. Before doing anything brave, Yoshida (BOS) - questionable, hamstring tightness, exited last game. Check status. Nick Gonzales (PIT) - day-to-day after HBP to helmet. lineups are not confirmed.

Targets: Sandoval OVER 4.5 Ks (if price is right), Kiner-Falefa 1+ hit, Contreras 1+ hit. Pass on Bachar K over. Yoshida-dependent angles on hold.

AZ at ATL (13:35 ET)

Neither pitcher scares anyone. Soroka (AZ) has 8.7 K/9 but a 0-K start in his L5 - inconsistency. Elder (ATL) has 7.4 K/9 against AZ's 21.8% K rate (low) - his ceiling is very low. The bats are more interesting than the arms. Moreno (.304, 17.6% K, L7 38.5% hit) is the best AZ bat. Harris II (.290, 20 HR, 40% multi-hit L15) is the best ATL bat. This is a contact/game-flow game, not a K prop game.

Our model: AZ 3-2, WP 60%, total 9.4. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.47. Model split - AZ favored but ATL at home. The main risk: Soroka's inconsistency (0-K start in L5). ATL at home with the crowd. Low K ceilings on both sides make SGP K legs weak. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check.

Targets: Moreno 1+ hit, Harris II 1+ hit. Pass on K props (both arms too inconsistent). Pass on ML until lines post.

NYY at TOR (13:37 ET)

This is the Cease game. 13.1 K/9 - best in baseball - against a NYY lineup striking out 27.2% of the time. L5 [7,10,7,11,9] averaging 8.8. The man hasn't been below 7 Ks in his last five. The alt-K board is juicy: O7.5 at 88.2% fair probability, O8.5 at 71.3%, even O9.5 at 47.5%. If the book posts 8.5, that's the play. If they post 7.5, it's still strong but less edge. Ryan Weathers (NYY) is the other side - 9.7 K/9 but faces TOR's 21.7% K rate (low), caps his ceiling.

Our model: TOR 3-2, WP 60%, total 7.2. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.52. TOR favored at home with Cease on the mound. The main risk: Cease walked 4 last start - control can wobble. NYY's 27.2% K rate is high but not the highest. Vlad out changes the TOR lineup dynamics. Before doing anything brave, Vlad Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - CONCUSSION IL, OUT. Do not use. lineups are not confirmed. Prices need a fresh check.

Targets: TOR ML + Cease OVER 8.5 + Kirk 2+ hits. Cease alt: OVER 7.5 if you want a safer floor (88.2% fair P). Contrarian: NYY ML + Weathers OVER Ks + Ali Sánchez 1+ hit (plus money if NYY is underdog).

WSH at NYM (13:40 ET)

This is our favorite game on the board. NYM 5-0 consensus at 66% WP is the strongest ML signal all day. Christian Scott (11.3 K/9) is the most consistent K arm - L5 [6,7,7,6,7], never below 6. He faces WSH's 24.8% K rate. O5.5 sits at 91.9% fair probability. That's not a guess, that's math. The alt board: O6.5 at 65.5% is still strong.

Our model: NYM 5-0 consensus, WP 66%, total 9.4. Router tier: scout. Trust: 0.64. Best ML edge on the slate - unanimous model agreement. The main risk: Scott only 78 IP this year - workload question. He hasn't been deep into games consistently. If he gets pulled early, the K prop is at risk. NYM -180ish is a steep price for an SGP leg. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check. Scott workload - monitor pitch count.

Targets: NYM ML + Scott OVER 5.5 + Bichette 1+ hit + Soto 1+ hit ( best SGP). Scott OVER 5.5 Ks as a single. Bichette 2+ hits as a separate high-variance play. Simpler 3-leg: NYM ML + Scott OVER 5.5 + Soto 1+ hit.

SD at CLE (13:40 ET)

Neither K prop is exciting. Mize (SD) has 6.9 K/9 - weak. Bibee (CLE) has 7.1 K/9 with L5 [4,10,5,3,1] - wildly inconsistent (a 1-K and 3-K start in there). The bats are the story. SD has Campusano (.317, 54.5% multi-hit L15) and Samad Taylor (.330, 45.5% multi-hit L15) - both scorching. CLE has DeLauter (.284, 60% multi-hit L15) - the hottest bat on the CLE side. This is a hits game, not a K game. SGP is weak without a reliable K leg.

Our model: SD 3-2, WP 60%, total 9.0. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.39. Low trust - model isn't confident. The main risk: Low trust (0.39). Bibee's inconsistency. No reliable K prop on either side. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check.

Targets: Campusano 2+ hits, DeLauter 2+ hits, Samad Taylor 1+ hit. Pass on K props. Pass on SGP (no good K leg). Pass on ML until lines post.

MIA at CIN (13:40 ET)

Eury Pérez is the star here. 9.9 K/9 against CIN's 28.5% K rate - the highest K% on the slate. L5 [7,9,6,9,6] averaging 7.4, clears 5/5. O5.5 sits at 90.8% fair probability. That's elite. The contrarian angle: MIA is the underdog (CIN 52%), but Pérez is the better K arm. If you like MIA ML + Pérez OVER 5.5 + Otto Lopez 1+ hit, you're getting plus money on the ML leg with a strong K correlation.

Our model: CIN 4-1, WP 52%, total 7.5. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.46. Weak consensus - barely favors CIN. The main risk: MIA is the underdog - if Pérez dominates but MIA doesn't score, you lose the ML leg. CIN at home. Pérez walks can pile up. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check.

Targets: Pérez OVER 5.5 Ks (strong single). MIA ML + Pérez OVER 5.5 + Otto Lopez 1+ hit (contrarian SGP, plus money). Alt: Pérez OVER 6.5 at 72.2% if you want a higher line.

CWS at DET (13:40 ET)

Sean Burke (CWS) is a sneaky good K prop. 10.1 K/9 against DET's 25.1% K rate, L5 [8,4,10,5,9] averaging 7.2. Three of five over 7. O5.5 at 75.5% fair probability. The contrarian: CWS is the underdog, but Burke is the better K arm. Meidroth (.280, 62.5% multi-hit L15, L7 43.8% hit) is scorching - best 2+ hit candidate on the CWS side.

Our model: DET 3-2, WP 55%, total 8.3. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.57. Moderate DET edge. The main risk: Burke has two clunkers in L5 (4K, 5K). CWS underdog. Greene out weakens DET lineup but also removes a CWS K prop target. Before doing anything brave, Riley Greene (DET) - IL, OUT. Do not use. lineups are not confirmed. Prices need a fresh check.

Targets: Burke OVER 5.5 Ks (good single). CWS ML + Burke OVER 5.5 + Meidroth 1+ hit (contrarian SGP). Meidroth 2+ hits (high variance). Pass on Anderson K over.

TEX at ATH (16:05 ET)

Cody Bradford (TEX) has 4.9 K/9 - pitch-to-contact guy. No K prop on the TEX side. Jacob Lopez (ATH) has 8.2 K/9 against TEX's 25.7% K rate, L5 [5,9,8,4,6] averaging 6.4. He's the K arm here. The contrarian SGP: ATH ML + Lopez OVER 4.5 + Kuroda-Grauer 1+ hit. But Kuroda-Grauer is .417 in 60 AB - that's a tiny sample with massive regression risk. Don't fall for the batting average.

Our model: TEX 5-0 consensus, WP 57%, total 9.4. Router tier: scout. Trust: 0.46. Unanimous but moderate trust. The main risk: ATH is the underdog. Kuroda-Grauer's .417 is smoke and mirrors (60 AB). No K prop on the TEX side makes their SGP weak. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check. Kuroda-Grauer regression risk - 60 AB sample.

Targets: Lopez OVER 4.5 Ks (decent single). Josh Jung 1+ hit / 2+ hits. Pass on Kuroda-Grauer props (sample size). ATH ML + Lopez OVER 4.5 + Gelof 1+ hit (contrarian, but ATH underdog).

COL at SF (16:05 ET)

Neither K prop is playable. Hughes (COL) has 8.4 K/9 but a 5.61 ERA - getting hit. Tidwell (SF) has 7.7 K/9 with L5 [6,3,4,2] averaging 3.8 - the K output is weak. This is a hits game. Jung Hoo Lee (.290, 10.8% K, 40% multi-hit L15) is SF's best bat - elite contact. McCarthy (.296, 18.2% K) is the best COL bat. Matt Chapman (SF) is injured - check status.

Our model: SF 3-2, WP 53%, total 9.5. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.47. Weak SF edge - coin flip. The main risk: Coin-flip game. No good K prop. Chapman injury status unknown. Before doing anything brave, Matt Chapman (SF) - injury, status uncertain. Check before using any SF hitter. lineups are not confirmed. Prices need a fresh check.

Targets: Jung Hoo Lee 1+ hit / 2+ hits, McCarthy 1+ hit. Pass on K props. Pass on SGP. Pass on ML.

KC at LAA (16:07 ET)

Noah Cameron (KC) has 8.2 K/9 against LAA's 28.6% K rate (second-highest on the slate). But his L5 [2,9,7,1,9] is WILD - a 1-K start and a 2-K start mixed with 9-K starts. That variance is terrifying. If you want the K prop, take OVER 4.5 at 64.7% - the floor is safer than the ceiling is high. Ryan Johnson (LAA) has 7.0 K/9 - weak, don't bother.

Our model: LAA 4-1, WP 57%, total 9.1. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.46. Moderate LAA edge. The main risk: Cameron's variance - 1-K and 2-K starts in his L5. KC is the underdog. No reliable K prop on the LAA side. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check.

Targets: Cameron OVER 4.5 Ks (safer floor, 64.7% fair P). Witt 2+ hits. Schanuel 1+ hit. KC ML + Cameron OVER 4.5 + Witt 1+ hit (contrarian, but Cameron variance is scary).

PHI at MIN (14:10 ET)

High total (10.5) says offense. Painter (PHI) has 7.8 K/9 but a 6.27 ERA - he's bad. The K prop is achievable (OVER 4.5 at ~65%) but PHI winning despite Painter is the real question. Kremer (MIN) has 6.8 K/9 with a 1.50 ERA - pitching great but K ceiling is low. Don't touch Kremer's K over.

Our model: PHI 4-1, WP 54%, total 10.5. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.44. Moderate PHI edge, high total. The main risk: Painter's 6.27 ERA - he could get shelled and PHI loses. Kremer's low K ceiling. High total means volatility. Before doing anything brave, prices, lineups, and weather need a fresh check.

Targets: Stott 1+ hit, Schwarber 1+ hit (power), Alex Jackson 2+ hits, Jeffers 2+ hits. Painter OVER 4.5 Ks (iffy - ERA risk). Pass on Kremer K over. Pass on SGP (weak K legs).

STL at CHC (15:15 ET)

11.0 total - the highest on the slate. This is an offense game. Dobbins (STL) has 8.4 K/9 against CHC's 24.9% K, L5 [6,4,5,4,5] averaging 4.8 - steady but unspectacular. Cabrera (CHC) has 8.1 K/9 against STL's 23.3% K (low) - ceiling is capped.

Our model: CHC 4-1, WP 56%, total 11.0. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.57. Moderate CHC edge, highest total on the board. The main risk: STL's 23.3% K rate is low - caps Cabrera. High total means volatility - could go either way. Dobbins only 45 IP. Before doing anything brave, prices need a fresh check. lineups are not confirmed. weather needs a fresh check - wind at Wrigley could matter (check!).

Targets: Suzuki 2+ hits, Hoerner 1+ hit, Burleson 1+ hit. Dobbins OVER 4.5 Ks (steady floor). CHC ML + Dobbins OVER 4.5 + Hoerner 1+ hit (decent SGP, but Dobbins is the STL pitcher - wait, that's negative correlation if CHC ML. Use CHC ML + Cabrera OVER 3.5 + Suzuki 1+ hit instead).

MIL at LAD (16:10 ET)

Two elite K arms in a low-total game. Skubal (LAD) has 9.8 K/9 against MIL's 24.8% K, L5 [6,6,6,12,9] averaging 7.8 - trending up hard. O5.5 at 77.3%, O6.5 at 63.1%. He's only 11 IP this season (2 starts since trade) but the Ks are real. Henderson (MIL) has 11.1 K/9 against LAD's 23.7% K, L5 [7,8,9,4,4] averaging 6.4. O5.5 at 68.6%. Both K props are playable.

Our model: LAD 3-2, WP 54%, total 7.1. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.56. Coin-flip game, slight LAD edge. The main risk: Skubal only 11 IP this season - workload/depth unknown. Freeman's dugout fall - verify he's playing. Turang's knee - check MIL lineup. Coin-flip game adds variance. Before doing anything brave, Freddie Freeman (LAD) - fell into dugout 08-13, "in good spirits." CHECK STATUS. Brice Turang (MIL) - knee MRI, uncertain. Do not use until confirmed. lineups are not confirmed. Prices need a fresh check.

Targets: Skubal OVER 6.5 Ks (trending up). LAD ML + Skubal OVER 6.5 + Freeman 1+ hit + Ohtani 1+ hit ( strong SGP, verify Freeman). Henderson OVER 5.5 Ks (contrarian single). MIL ML + Henderson OVER 5.5 + Pratt 1+ hit (contrarian). Freeman 2+ hits (if active).

SEA at HOU (19:20 ET)

Bryan Woo (SEA) is quietly dealing - 0.00 ERA in his L2 (15 IP, 0 ER). 9.0 K/9 against HOU's 24.0% K, L5 [5,5,8,7,5] averaging 6.0. O5.5 at 68.2%, O4.5 at 89.7%. He's the SEA K prop. Hunter Brown (HOU) has 9.5 K/9 against SEA's 25.8% K but L5 [4,8,4,4,3] - inconsistent, and he's walked 6 and 5 in recent starts. Control issues. Alt 4.5 is the play if you want Brown - his bad starts still clear 3-4.

Our model: HOU 3-2, WP 55%, total 9.1. Router tier: watch. Trust: 0.55. Moderate HOU edge at home. The main risk: Brown's control issues (6 and 5 BB in recent starts). Woo's 0.00 ERA is unsustainable - regression could hit. HOU at home with 55% WP. Before doing anything brave, prices need a fresh check. lineups are not confirmed. weather needs a fresh check - roof status at Minute Maid (usually closed, but verify).

Targets: Alvarez 2+ hits (safest bat on slate). Woo OVER 5.5 Ks (consistent, dealing). HOU ML + Brown OVER 4.5 + Alvarez 1+ hit. SEA ML + Woo OVER 5.5 + Arozarena 1+ hit (contrarian).

Slate Shortlist

First strikeout checks: TOR ML + Cease OVER 8.5 + Kirk 2+ hits. Cease alt: OVER 7.5 if you want a safer floor (88.2% fair P). Contrarian: NYY ML + Weathers OVER Ks + Ali Sánchez 1+ hit (plus money if NYY is underdog).; NYM ML + Scott OVER 5.5 + Bichette 1+ hit + Soto 1+ hit ( best SGP). Scott OVER 5.5 Ks as a single. Bichette 2+ hits as a separate high-variance play. Simpler 3-leg: NYM ML + Scott OVER 5.5 + Soto 1+ hit.; Pérez OVER 5.5 Ks (strong single). MIA ML + Pérez OVER 5.5 + Otto Lopez 1+ hit (contrarian SGP, plus money). Alt: Pérez OVER 6.5 at 72.2% if you want a higher line.; Cameron OVER 4.5 Ks (safer floor, 64.7% fair P). Witt 2+ hits. Schanuel 1+ hit. KC ML + Cameron OVER 4.5 + Witt 1+ hit (contrarian, but Cameron variance is scary).; Suzuki 2+ hits, Hoerner 1+ hit, Burleson 1+ hit. Dobbins OVER 4.5 Ks (steady floor). CHC ML + Dobbins OVER 4.5 + Hoerner 1+ hit (decent SGP, but Dobbins is the STL pitcher - wait, that's negative correlation if CHC ML. Use CHC ML + Cabrera OVER 3.5 + Suzuki 1+ hit instead).

Hit props I want to revisit first: BAL @ TB, BOS @ PIT, AZ @ ATL, NYY @ TOR, WSH @ NYM

Builds that make the most sense on first pass: BAL @ TB, BOS @ PIT, AZ @ ATL, NYY @ TOR, WSH @ NYM

Availability Gates

Before lock, verify prices, lineups, injuries, and weather. Any stale or missing market in the source is treated as a manual re-check, not a play.