MLB August 20 Morning Look

The August 20 full slate wraps with all nine lineups confirmed. The morning look identified two attack-tier K props and a scout pick on Milwaukee, and the evening adds total-base angles on Grisham and Alonso in the New York at Baltimore game, a deGrom K prop against a weakened Washington lineup, and the Lambert K prop holding despite a price move.

Jordan Walker and Alejandro Kirk remain the standout hitter props from the afternoon. Walker is batting cleanup for St. Louis with a .476 L5 and hits in all five games. Kirk is batting third for Toronto with a .450 L5, zero strikeouts, and 5 of 5 hit games.

STL at CIN (12:40 PM EDT, STL -113, CIN +106, O/U 9.0, Dome)

The pulse leans St. Louis at minus-14.0, and Cincinnati's offense is the worst it has been all season. The Reds are hitting .202 with 2.6 runs per game over their last seven. Elly De La Cruz is at .157 L5 with 9 strikeouts, and Spencer Steer is still out of the lineup. The model calls this a coin flip at 50.1% with 3/5 agreement, but the pulse and form both point to St. Louis.

The St. Louis lineup is confirmed and it is loaded at the top. Jordan Walker is batting fourth with a .476 L5, 2 home runs, and 5 of 5 hit games. He is the best hitter prop on the slate. Alec Burleson bats third with a .363 L5 and 5 of 5 hit games. Wetherholt leads off with a .300 L5 and 3 of 5 hit games. Herrera at number two is cold at .117 with 6 strikeouts, and Baez at number five is unplayable at .055 with 7 strikeouts.

On the Cincinnati side, only Dane Myers is hot at .375 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games batting seventh. The rest of the lineup is cold or strikeout-prone. Toglia is at .066 with 7 strikeouts and a 42% season K rate. Elly is at .157 with 9 strikeouts. This is a bad offense right now.

Targets: St. Louis moneyline, Walker 1+ hit, Burleson 1+ hit, UNDER 9.0 as a frame leg. Myers 1+ hit as the only Cincinnati prop worth considering.

SF at CLE (1:10 PM EDT, CLE -178, O/U 6.5, 78 degrees, wind 13mph)

Roupp over 4.5 strikeouts at plus-120 is the action bet. His K-distribution probability of 63.5% produces the highest EV on the slate at plus-37.1, and he has cleared 4.5 in 4 of his last 5. The total dropped a full run from 7.5 to 6.5. The 2K outlier is the risk, but Cleveland's offense is cold and weakened without DeLauter and Manzardo, which should let Roupp work deep.

Gavin Williams on the Cleveland side is striking out 10-plus in four straight starts with an L5 of 5, 10, 11, 11, and 11. Betting the under against that streak is a pass.

Both lineups are confirmed. Cleveland bats Kwan first, Bazzana second, and Ramirez third. Ramirez is the best bat at .333 L5 with 3 of 5 hit games and a 14% strikeout rate. Genao at number five is hot at .352 L5. Bazzana is cold at .111 with 5 strikeouts and Bailey is ice cold at .062 with 5 strikeouts. San Francisco is without Chapman and Schmitt, weakening the infield. Adames at number three is at .411 L5 but carries a 29% season strikeout rate against Williams, which is a real risk.

Targets: Roupp over 4.5 strikeouts, Ramirez 1+ hit, UNDER 6.5 as a frame leg. Pass on the Cleveland moneyline and the Williams under.

TOR at TB (1:10 PM EDT, TB -163, O/U 7.0, Dome)

Shane Bieber is the attack-tier K prop. He carries a 2.45 ERA over his last five with an L5 of 5, 4, 6, 3, and 6 strikeouts, clearing 3.5 in four of five. The price has worsened from minus-113 to minus-129, but the edge remains. The total dropped from 7.5 to 7.0.

Both lineups are confirmed. Toronto bats McAdoo first, Cameron second, and Kirk third. Kirk is the safest hitter prop on the slate with a .450 L5, 3 home runs, zero strikeouts, and 5 of 5 hit games. He carries this offense without Vladdy. Springer at number four is cold at .187 with 4 strikeouts, and Straw at number eight is at .000 with zero hits in five games.

Tampa Bay bats Simpson first, Caminero second, and Yandy fourth. Simpson is a leadoff contact machine at .363 L5 with a 9% strikeout rate and 5 of 5 hit games. Yandy is hot at .421 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games. Caminero has 35 home runs but is cold recently at .238 L5 with 6 strikeouts.

Seymour on the Tampa Bay side is a high-variance K arm with L5 of 9, 7, 9, 4, and 3. His price improved slightly to plus-112, still plus money. The 5.5 line sits right at his median, making him a track play.

Targets: Bieber over 3.5 strikeouts, Kirk 1+ hit, Simpson 1+ hit, UNDER 7.0 as a frame leg. Pass on the Tampa Bay moneyline at minus-163.

SEA at MIL (2:10 PM EDT, MIL -126, O/U 7.5, Dome)

Milwaukee is the only scout-tier moneyline on the slate with 59.9% model probability and 5/5 agreement. The pulse delta of plus-21.4 is the second-largest on the board, and Milwaukee is the hottest team in the pulse index at plus-10.8. Seattle is cold at minus-10.6. The total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5.

Both lineups are confirmed. Milwaukee gets Garrett Mitchell back in center field batting seventh, but Sal Frelick remains out. Joey Ortiz bats sixth at .333 L5 with 2 home runs and 4 of 5 hit games. Jake Bauers bats third at .411 L5 with a home run and 3 of 5 hit games, though he carries 7 strikeouts in his last 5. Jackson Chourio bats second at .363 L5 with contact. David Hamilton bats eighth at .384 L5 with a home run.

Seattle's lineup has Donovan leading off at .350 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games and a 17% strikeout rate. Dominic Canzone bats third at .428 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games, but he carries 5 strikeouts in his last 5 with a 23% season K rate. Josh Naylor bats fifth at .391 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games and a low 14% strikeout rate. Julio Rodriguez bats fourth and is cold at .181 L5 with 7 strikeouts.

Targets: Milwaukee moneyline, Ortiz 1+ hit, Bauers 1+ hit, UNDER 7.5 as a frame leg. Bieber and Roupp K props as cross-game anchors.

ATH at KC (2:10 PM EDT, KC -128, O/U 8.5, 81 degrees, wind 12mph)

This is the biggest pulse delta on the slate at plus-31.5 leaning Kansas City. The Athletics are the coldest team in the pulse index at minus-25.8 and still missing four regulars including Soderstrom, Langeliers, Kurtz, and Jacob Wilson. Their starter Gage Jump carries an 8.18 ERA. Kansas City is hot at 5-2 with 4.9 runs per game.

Both lineups are confirmed. Kansas City bats Loftin first, Witt Jr. second, and Garcia third. Witt Jr. is at .263 L5 with 3 of 5 hit games for max at-bats. Massey is returning and bats eighth at .529 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games, though the eighth spot means fewer at-bats. Pasquantino bats fifth at .400 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games and 2.6 total bases per game. Loftin at leadoff is cold at .066 with 6 strikeouts.

The Athletics lineup is confirmed but still missing four regulars. Henry Bolte leads off at .454 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games and only 2 strikeouts, the best Athletics bat. Lawrence Butler bats fourth at .352 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games. Jeff McNeil bats second at .294 L5 with a 12% strikeout rate. The lineup is weakened but has a few hot bats at the top.

The K props on this game are both passes. Jump's price is terrible despite his 11.2 K/9, and Dobnak's attack tier is a model artifact with a K-distribution EV of minus-23.0.

Targets: Kansas City moneyline, Witt Jr. 1+ hit, Massey 1+ hit, Pasquantino 1+ hit, OVER 8.5 as a frame leg.

ATL at CWS (2:10 PM EDT, ATL -106, CWS -102, O/U 8.5, no weather data)

The pulse delta of plus-16.6 leaning the White Sox is driven almost entirely by Atlanta being cold at minus-14.0, not by Chicago being hot. Atlanta is 2-5 with 3.0 runs per game over their last seven. The White Sox are 4-3 with 5.6 runs per game. At near-even money, the White Sox at home with the pulse edge is the value side.

Both lineups are confirmed. Atlanta bats Acuna first, Baldwin second, and Olson third. Olson has 36 home runs and is at .294 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games. Baldwin is hot at .285 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games. Harris at number six is at .315 L5 with 4 of 5 hit games. Acuna is cold at .238 with 8 strikeouts, and Riley is ice cold at .166 with 9 strikeouts.

Chicago bats Antonacci first, Murakami second, and Vargas third. Vargas is the best White Sox bat at .315 L5 with 5 of 5 hit games. Peters at number eight is at .357 L5 with zero strikeouts and 3 of 5 hit games. Benintendi at number four is at .307 L5 with 3 of 5 hit games. Antonacci is cold at leadoff with .125 and 4 strikeouts.

Targets: White Sox moneyline at near-even money, Vargas 1+ hit, Olson 1+ hit, UNDER 8.5 as a frame leg.

NYY at BAL (6:36 PM EDT, NYY -107, BAL +108, O/U 7.5)

Cole versus Bradish is the marquee matchup. Cole is elite with a 2.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9, and he struck out 11 against this same Baltimore team on July 22. But the K prop has a conflict: the model's blended mean of 6.0 says under 6.5, while his L5 average of 7.0 and Baltimore's 28.9% strikeout rate say over. The market agrees — the over price moved from minus-102 to minus-121. Still a track play due to the model conflict.

Both lineups are confirmed. New York is still without Bellinger and Goldschmidt, removing 674 at-bats of offense from the lineup. Grisham is carrying the team from leadoff at .321 L7 with 4 home runs, 3.1 total bases per game, and 5 of 7 hit games. Lombard Jr. is the surprise contributor at .347 L7 with 5 of 7 hit games. Ramos at number three is unplayable at .083 AVG with a 41% strikeout rate. Rice has 33 home run power but is at .178 L7. The Yankees bullpen is elite with a 1.05 ERA over their last 3 games.

Baltimore is at full strength. Alonso is the hottest bat on either team at .444 L7 with 3 home runs, 3.1 total bases per game, and 7 of 7 hit games batting second. He has cleared 2+ total bases in 6 of his last 7 games. Henderson is getting on base at .307 L7 with 5 walks. Taveras is the hot bottom-of-order bat at .320 L7 with 5 of 7 hit games. Narvaez at number nine is the automatic out at .055 L7 with a 38% strikeout rate. Cowser at 35% strikeout rate and Basallo with 8 strikeouts in his last 7 are K-prone against Cole. The Baltimore bullpen is leaking at 5.23 ERA over their last 3 games, which is the edge if the game is close after 6.

Baltimore at plus-108 at home is the value side. The line moved in Baltimore's favor from plus-104. With Bellinger and Goldschmidt confirmed out and Alonso on fire, this is a live home dog.

Targets: Baltimore moneyline at plus-108, Grisham 2+ total bases, Alonso 2+ total bases, UNDER 7.5 as a frame leg.

WSH at TEX (8:05 PM EDT, TEX -172, O/U 7.5, Dome)

deGrom is at home and trending up with L5 strikeouts of 3, 4, 6, 7, and 9. His ERA is 2.97 with a 10.4 K/9. The K prop line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, making the over much more reachable. deGrom over 5.5 at minus-125 is the best late K prop. Washington is without James Wood, removing 437 at-bats from the lineup, and facing deGrom at home is a nightmare for a weakened offense.

Both lineups are confirmed. Texas gets Burger back batting third, providing 439 at-bats of offense that was missing yesterday when they were shut out. Langford leads off, Seager bats second, and Nimmo bats fourth. Washington bats Lile first, Ortiz second, and Chaparro third, but without Wood the lineup is significantly weaker.

The Texas moneyline at minus-172 is too chalky for a single. The under 7.5 works with deGrom dealing and Washington's offense weakened.

Targets: deGrom over 5.5 strikeouts, UNDER 7.5, Alvarez over 4.5 strikeouts as a track play. Pass on the Texas moneyline at this price.

LAA at HOU (8:11 PM EDT, HOU -178, O/U 8.5, 64 degrees, wind 2mph)

Lambert is quietly excellent with a 2.55 ERA and L5 of 6, 8, 3, 10, and 7 strikeouts. He is a high-K arm at home facing a Los Angeles lineup with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 28.6%. The price moved from plus-100 to minus-107, going against us, but the K matchup remains elite. Soler and O'Hoppe are confirmed still out for Los Angeles, meaning Trout has no protection in the lineup. The 3K outlier is the risk, but 4 of 5 L5 starts cleared 5.5.

Both lineups are confirmed. Los Angeles bats Meckler first, Trout second, and Schanuel third. Meckler, Schanuel, Heineman, and Frazier are all low-K contact hitters, but Ballesteros, Grissom, and Lowe carry higher strikeout rates. Houston is at full strength with Varsho returning batting fifth. Alvarez, Paredes, Altuve, and Varsho give Houston a strong middle of the order against Rodriguez, who carries a 5.62 ERA.

The Houston moneyline at minus-178 is too expensive. Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts is a pass despite his 10.5 K/9.

Targets: Lambert over 5.5 strikeouts, UNDER 8.5 as a frame leg. Pass on the Houston moneyline.

Slate Shortlist

Best strikeout props: Bieber over 3.5 at minus-129, Roupp over 4.5 at plus-120, deGrom over 5.5 at minus-125, Lambert over 5.5 at minus-107.

Best hitter props (confirmed lineups): Walker 1+ hit (.476 L5, 5/5), Kirk 1+ hit (.450 L5, 5/5, 0 K), Massey 1+ hit (.529 L5, 5/5 but batting 8th), Alonso 2+ total bases (.444 L7, 7/7, 6/7 over 2+ TB), Grisham 2+ total bases (.321 L7, 4 HR, 3.1 TB/G), Pasquantino 1+ hit (.400 L5, 4/5).

Best moneyline checks: Milwaukee at minus-126, Kansas City at minus-128, White Sox at minus-102, Baltimore at plus-108, St. Louis at minus-113.

Best correlated builds: Toronto with Kirk 1+ hit, Bieber K, and Simpson 1+ hit; St. Louis with Walker 1+ hit, Burleson 1+ hit, and STL moneyline; Kansas City with KC moneyline, Witt Jr. 1+ hit, and Massey 1+ hit; Milwaukee with MIL moneyline, Ortiz 1+ hit, and under 7.5; NYY at BAL with Grisham 2+ TB, Alonso 2+ TB, and under 7.5.

Notes Before Lock

All nine lineups are now confirmed. Bellinger and Goldschmidt are confirmed out for New York. Wood is confirmed out for Washington. Soler and O'Hoppe are confirmed out for Los Angeles. Spencer Steer is confirmed out for Cincinnati. DeLauter and Manzardo are confirmed out for Cleveland. The Athletics are still missing four regulars. Key returns: Burger is back for Texas batting third, Mitchell is back for Milwaukee batting seventh, Massey is back for Kansas City batting eighth, Varsho is back for Houston batting fifth, Clement is back for Toronto batting seventh. Weather data was missing for the Atlanta at Chicago game. The Cole K prop has a model-versus-projection conflict, though the market is betting the over at minus-121.

TL;DR

• Bieber over 3.5 K (-129) — attack-tier K prop, 4/5 L5 over, price worsened but edge holds
• Roupp over 4.5 K (+120) — highest K-dist EV on the slate, price improved
• deGrom over 5.5 K (-125) — line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, WSH missing Wood, deGrom trending up
• Lambert over 5.5 K (-107) — price moved from +100 but LAA's 28.6% K% is elite, 4/5 L5 over
• Walker 1+ hit — .476 L5, 5/5 hit games, batting 4th, best hitter prop on the slate
• Kirk 1+ hit — .450 L5, 5/5 hit games, 0 K, batting 3rd, safest hitter prop on the slate
• Alonso 2+ total bases — .444 L7, 7/7 hit games, 6/7 over 2+ TB, batting 2nd
• Grisham 2+ total bases — .321 L7, 4 HR, 3.1 TB/G, batting leadoff with Bellinger/Goldschmidt out
• Massey 1+ hit — .529 L5, 5/5 hit games, but batting 8th means fewer at-bats
• Milwaukee moneyline (-126) — scout-tier ML with 5/5 model agreement, Mitchell back
• Kansas City moneyline (-128) — biggest pulse delta +31.5, ATH missing 4 regulars
• White Sox moneyline (-102) — near even money, pulse +16.6 vs ice-cold Atlanta
• St. Louis moneyline (-113) — CIN offense dead without Steer, Walker and Burleson confirmed
• Baltimore moneyline (+108) — Bellinger/Goldschmidt confirmed out, Alonso 7/7, NYY pen elite but BAL at home with plus money
• Best frame: TOR@TB — Kirk 1+ hit + Bieber over 3.5 K + Simpson 1+ hit
• Best evening frame: NYY@BAL — Grisham 2+ TB + Alonso 2+ TB + UNDER 7.5

Updates

• Revision 4 (6:30 PM EDT, August 20): All 9 lineups confirmed. Added NYY@BAL evening analysis with confirmed lineups: Bellinger and Goldschmidt confirmed still out for NYY, Baltimore at full strength. Added Grisham 2+ total bases (.321 L7, 4 HR, batting leadoff) and Alonso 2+ total bases (.444 L7, 7/7 hit games, 6/7 over 2+ TB, batting 2nd) as new selection cards. Added deGrom over 5.5 K (-125) — line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, WSH missing Wood. Updated Lambert price from +100 to -107 (7 cents worse). Added LAA@HOU confirmed lineups: Soler and O'Hoppe still out, Varsho returns for HOU batting 5th. Added WSH@TEX confirmed lineups: Burger returns for TEX batting 3rd, Wood still out for WSH. NYY@BAL total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5. Updated NYY@BAL moneyline to NYY -107 / BAL +108. Updated WSH@TEX moneyline to TEX -172. Updated LAA@HOU moneyline to HOU -178.
• Revision 3 (4:00 PM EDT, August 20): Lineups confirmed for 7 of 9 games. Added SEA@MIL lineup (Mitchell returns batting 7th, Frelick still out) and ATH@KC lineup (ATH still missing 4 regulars). Added hitter props: Pasquantino 1+ hit, Ortiz 1+ hit. Odds updates: TOR@TB total dropped 7.5 to 7.0, SF@CLE total dropped 7.5 to 6.5, SEA@MIL total dropped 8.0 to 7.5. Bieber price worsened -113 to -129. Roupp price improved +116 to +120. Singer line flipped from +112 to -104. BAL improved from +104 to +108. NYY shortened from -121 to -107. KC moved from -135 to -128. MIL moved from -123 to -126.
• Revision 2 (2:00 PM EDT, August 20): Lineups confirmed for 5 of 9 games. Added hitter props: Walker 1+ hit (attack, .476 L5, batting 4th), Kirk 1+ hit (attack, .450 L5, 0 K, batting 3rd), Massey 1+ hit (lean, .529 L5, batting 8th), Simpson 1+ hit, Burleson 1+ hit, Witt Jr. 1+ hit, Vargas 1+ hit, Olson 1+ hit. Updated SGP frames with confirmed batting orders. Best frame updated to TOR@TB. CIN offense confirmed worse without Spencer Steer. CLE offense confirmed weaker without DeLauter and Manzardo, which helps Roupp's K prop. Key returns: Clement back for TOR at number seven, Massey back for KC at number eight.
• Revision 1 (8:30 AM EDT, August 20): Initial morning look. 0 of 18 lineups posted — all hitter props are track-only. Weather data missing for ATL at CWS. No model K-distribution snapshots available for several pitchers; K prop edges are K-distribution where available and independent normal-distribution estimates otherwise. TOR at TB game time corrected from 6:40 PM to 1:10 PM EDT after ESPN schedule verification. Games reordered chronologically.